China’s May Auto Exports: A Tale of Two Titans as BYD Surges and Tesla Stumbles

The May 2025 auto export numbers are in, and they paint a vivid picture of the shifting dynamics in the global automotive landscape. According to the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA), China exported 452,000 vehicles in May, a remarkable 17.8% increase year-over-year. Year-to-date, total exports have surpassed the 2 million mark, solidifying China’s growing influence on the world stage.

But beneath the headline numbers, a more nuanced story is unfolding—one of a dominant local champion hitting a new gear and a global giant taking a strategic pause. From my perspective here in China, these numbers are more than just statistics; they are a sign of a potential global market realignment.

1. BYD’s Unstoppable Surge: A New Record and a Widening Lead

The undisputed highlight of May’s export data is BYD. For the first time ever, the company surpassed 80,000 units in monthly exports, setting a new record and cementing its position as China’s top auto exporter for the fifth consecutive month.

• A Multi-Pronged Attack: This wasn’t a one-hit wonder. The charge was led by the Song PLUS and the Seagull, each exporting over 10,000 units. The Seagull, in particular, was a breakout star, with exports skyrocketing 96% month-over-month to 17,000 units, vaulting it into the top 3 for the first time. The continued strong performance of the Dolphin and Yuan PLUS models proves that BYD’s diverse portfolio is finding broad appeal in international markets.

• The “Ecosystem” Export Strategy: BYD’s success isn’t just about shipping cars. They are executing a comprehensive global strategy, building local production bases in Thailand and Brazil, and developing a closed-loop industrial chain that includes everything from charging infrastructure to lithium mineral resources. This “Manufacturing + Technology + Ecosystem” approach is now paying clear dividends in their export volume.

2. Tesla Stumbles While Others Seize the Opportunity

Amidst BYD’s dominance, the performance of other major players was a mixed bag.

• Tesla’s Strategic Pause: Tesla’s exports saw a significant 22% drop compared to the previous month. The Model 3, in particular, fell by 47%. While this is likely a result of Tesla’s typical strategy of focusing on domestic Chinese sales towards the end of a quarter, it raises questions about its export competitiveness in the face of the relentless rise of local Chinese brands.

• The Winners: Geely, Hyundai, Mini, and Lincoln all saw impressive month-over-month export growth of over 30%. Geely, powered by popular models like the Binyue and Bowe L, once again surpassed 20,000 export units, climbing up the rankings.

• The Losers: On the other side of the ledger, Leapmotor, Wuling, Dongfeng, Volvo, and Changan all experienced export declines of over 20%. Leapmotor was hit particularly hard, with a 40% plunge.

• The ICE Holdouts: Even in an NEV-dominated export market, some internal combustion engine (ICE) models proved their continued relevance. The Chery Tiggo 7 and the JAC Hantu pickup truck both saw significant export growth, with the Hantu establishing itself as a leader in the pickup segment in markets across North America, Mexico, and the Middle East.

3. A New Era of Competition and a Lingering Question

May marked the first full month after the end of the US-China tariff war, ushering in a new phase for the auto industry. While the tariff adjustments open the door for American brands to re-evaluate their China strategy, risks remain.

But as I analyze these impressive export numbers, a critical question lingers in my mind.

Were all of these exported vehicles actually delivered and sold to end consumers in their destination markets? Or are some of them sitting in inventory at ports and dealerships, counted as “exported” but not yet sold?

Official export statistics are recorded when a vehicle clears Chinese customs and is shipped overseas. This number represents “shipments,” which can differ significantly from “retail sales.” It is incredibly difficult for an external observer to verify the final delivery status of every exported vehicle in real-time.

To truly understand the depth of market penetration, we must continuously monitor local sales trends and inventory levels in these export markets. Only then can we get an accurate picture of whether this surge represents true consumer demand or a channel-stuffing strategy in the relentless global “capacity games.”